Russia-2030: How to Finish Fourth?
Russia managed to build a strong economy, resilient to external shocks. The country had to work through numerous challenges in a short historical period. Five shocks proved to be unprecedented in scale and variety: institutional (90s), financial (2008), commodity (2014), epidemiological (2020), and geopolitical (2022). Despite the adversity, the economy continued to grow. Russia has entered the new electoral cycle with low debt, moderate inflation, a stable external position and an advanced banking system.The new Government and businesses face a tough challenge: how can the existing macroeconomic framework translate into rapid economic growth to become the world’s fourth economy? How to respond to the sixth shock – technological? What could turn this challenge into an opportunity? How to leverage AI and other innovations amid low unemployment and high capacity utilization? What institutional changes are required to make the leap forward? What will this mean for education, science and corporate investment? Which segments of the economy – industries, regions and technologies – should receive state support? And how will that influence the priorities of businesses and the country. What should the government do differently for the long-term growth?
