Programme

Over the past decades, middle income populations in developed economies have seen their income stagnate while the costs of many traditional services – such as education, housing, child care, and healthcare – have been and are continuing to grow well beyond inflation rates. This has been coupled with job insecurity triggered by the advent of Industry 4.0, AI and robotics, and its potential to eliminate jobs traditionally held by middle class workers (accounting, banking, insurance, general managers, logistics etc. where up to 75 million jobs are estimated to be lost by 2022 alone). Can this lead to the potential spread of the ‘middle class squeeze’ to major emerging economies, which are currently driving global middle-class growth? While the resulting economic insecurity has already destabilized the body politic of many major developed economies, what are the risks of this trend extending to the emerging markets? What are some of the fundamental steps that can be taken to alleviate middle class angst, and why have traditional political leaders struggled to adequately respond to these long-term trends?

Moderator
Charles Robertson, Global Chief Economist, Renaissance Capital

Charles Robertson

Global Chief Economist, Renaissance Capital

Charles Robertson, a leading emerging markets specialist, is Renaissance Capital’s Global Chief Economist and Head of the Firm’s Macro-strategy Unit. Mr. Robertson covers the global economic themes having the greatest impact on emerging markets.
Over the past decade, the scope of Mr. Robertson’s work has covered, among other topics: quantifying political risk in emerging markets; how the retirement age rising to 67 reflects deep-rooted problems in the West and great opportunities in emerging markets; the revolutionary nature of growth in countries with non-democratic governments; the fact that Africa’s economies are now returning some of the highest growth rates on Earth, and how this trend is set to play out; the impact of terrorism and natural disasters on economies; the effects of falling agricultural stocks on food prices and inflation; and how emerging-markets banks may have the best growth potential over the coming years.
Mr. Robertson is the lead author of The Fastest Billion: The Story Behind Africa’s Economic Revolution (www.fastestbillion.com), published in October 2012.
Mr. Robertson was ranked the number-one economics and macro analyst for emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa in the Extel survey in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. In addition, the team he led was ranked the best macro team in Extel’s 2010 survey of equity investors. Another of Charlie’s teams took first place for SSA coverage in the institutional investor survey for 2012.

Panellists
Ashok Aram, Chief Executive Officer, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), Deutsche Bank AG
Joao Jorge Arede Correia Neves, Secretary of State of Economy of the Portuguese Republic
Siddharth Bhatia, Vice President, National Investment Promotion and Facilitation Agency of India
Andrey Klepach, Deputy Chairman (Chief Economist) – Member of the Board, State Development Corporation "VEB.RF"
Ekaterina Trofimova, Partner, Deloitte CIS
David Hauner, Head of Emerging Markets Economics & Strategy, EMEA, Bank of America Merrill Lynch International Ltd.

Ashok Aram

Chief Executive Officer, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), Deutsche Bank AG

Ashok Aram is the CEO for Europe, Middle East and Africa, and Head of Private & Commercial Business (International), based in Frankfurt.
Mr Aram joined Deutsche Bank in 1995, initially in Singapore. He has held leadership roles across the bank including as Head of the Global Banking Division and Head of Global Capital Markets EMEA. He is currently Chairman of the EMEA Executive Committee for DB group, the EMEA Regional Governance Committee, as well as the PCB-I Executive Committee.
In 2010, Mr Aram was named Young Global Leader at the World Economic Forum in Geneva.
He holds a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Technology in Chennai and Masters in International Business and Comparative Culture from Sophia University, Tokyo.

Joao Jorge Arede Correia Neves

Secretary of State of Economy of the Portuguese Republic

Borned in 1957, in Ponte de Sôr, he is graduated in Economics at Instituto Superior de Economia (1980). Posteriorly concluded a master degree in Administration and Public Policies in Instituto Superior de Ciências do Trabalho e Empresa – ISCTE (2003).
In terms of his professional background, João was head of cabinet of two different Ministers of Economy, two-time director general (Economy and Industry), and had responsabilities in different public entities such as Agency for Competitiveness and Innovation (IAPMEI), Science and Technology Foundation (FCT) and Regional Operational Programme (Lisbon region).
Before assumming functions in XXI Government, João was member of the board of BIAL, an enterprise in pharmaceutical area.

Andrey Klepach

Deputy Chairman (Chief Economist) – Member of the Board, State Development Corporation "VEB.RF"

In 1981 graduated from the Economic Department of the Moscow Lomonosov State University, specialty – economist, lecturer of political economics, candidate of economic science.In 1981 – 1991 worked at the Political Economics Department of the Moscow Lomonosov State University.In 1991 – 1998 worked at the Institute of National Economic Forecasting, the Russian Academy of Sciences (lead researcher, head of laboratory). In 1998 – 1999 – Director of the Research Department of the Russian Central Bank. In 1999 – 2004 – Executive Director of the Economic Research Foundation Development Center.In 2004 – 2008 – Head of the Macro Economic Forecasting Department of the Russian Economic Development and Trade Ministry. From February of 2008 to July of 2014 – Russian Economic Development Deputy Minister. From July 2014 – Vnesheconombank Deputy Chairman (Chief Economist) – Member of the Board.In 2007 was awarded a title of Honored Economist for improving the Russian financial system, forming and developing its institutions.In 2011 was awarded the Order of Merit for his many years of exceptional work and public activities.

Ekaterina Trofimova

Partner, Deloitte CIS

On November 20, 2015, Ekaterina Trofimova was elected Chief Executive Officer by decision of the General Meeting of Founders of the Analytical Credit Rating Agency ACRA. Previously, in 2011, she joined the Gazprom team and, since 2012, has been a member of the Management Committee and been in charge of the work of the Ratings Advisory Centre, the Centre for Economic Forecasting and the Corporate Relations Department. From 2000 through July 2011, Ms. Trofimova worked as a financial analyst, Director and Head of Russia and CIS Financial Institutions Rating Group at Standard & Poor’s (Paris, France). Ms. Trofimova was on the analysis board of the ratings agency in Europe and was in charge of the group for awarding ratings to financial institutions. At S&P, she fulfilled a played role in developing and updating the methodology for preparing financial institution ratings. Alongside analytical work relating to major financial institutions, Ms. Trofimova took an active part in developing the concept for the company’s strategic development and HR management in the region. Ms. Trofimova graduated in Global Economics from the St. Petersburg State University of Economics and Finance in 1998 and the Sorbonne (Paris) in Finances and Tax Management in 2000.
January 17, 2019 Ekaterina Trofimova left the post of Chief Executive Officer of ACRA.