The Future of Labour Markets
Key conclusions
Concerns technological development threatens jobs unfounded
“You don’t need to be afraid. You just need to keep a close eye on everything without frightening representatives of this or that profession that their jobs will soon be gone.” – Maxim Topilin, Minister of Labour and Social Protection of the Russian Federation.
“We ask [executive directors] how technology affects their teams. 62% of them believe that they will hire more people in the future, not less, even if artificial intelligence is introduced.” – Bill Thomas, Chairman, KPMG International.
“Technology and a technological transformation are changing the labour market in significant ways. Completely new jobs are appearing, and they are bringing with them completely new requirements.” – Svetlana Lukash, Deputy Head of the Presidential Experts’ Directorate; Russian Sherpa to the G20.
Digitalization changes labour skill requirements
“We need the right people at the right place with the right skills. And we need to see it done on a sustainable basis in the long term.” – Bill Thomas.
“People in the future will be forced to change their job more often; their careers won’t be as linear as they are now.” – Annemarie Muntz, President, World Employment Confederation.
“The effect is colossal for robotics, for automation processes, for the emergence of new algorithms that can do so much more than just repeat existing solutions.” – Bruno Berthon, Managing Director, Accenture.
Problems
Increasing working age
“There is a problem with the population ageing for a whole number of reasons. A stratification of ages is taking place. A much greater percentage of the workforce now belongs to the older generation.” – Bill Thomas.
“Unfortunately, society in the West is ageing. While society is young in other countries, there isn’t enough employment for those young people.” – Heinz Koller, Regional Director for Europe and Central Asia, International Labour Organization
The growth of youth unemployment
“Youth unemployment is now 3 times higher than unemployment among the adult population; this is unprecedented.” – Bill Thomas.
“There are 200 million people out of work around the world and 66 million of them are young men and women. If you are under 25, then your chance of being unemployed is 3 times greater.” – Heinz Koller.
The complexity of regulating non-standard forms of employment
“What challenges do we have in mind? Undoubtedly, the growth of non-standard employment and flexible new forms of entrepreneurship. It’s not bad, but neither is it entirely clear. Most of these non-standard forms of employment are unregistered, and consequently, informal. The state does not receive taxes. And there are also challenges for workers of this kind; they are not provided with social protection.” – Svetlana Lukash.
“As for flexible forms of employment, they’re still not fully understood in general. They are often constrained by unjustified restrictions.” – Annemarie Muntz.
Income inequality and high-level poverty
“A problem arises with increasing inequality in guaranteed income. This is already beginning to create a separate threat to employment and confidence in existing political systems.” – Heinz Koller.
“More than 700 million workers continue to live in poverty. People work, but they can’t escape poverty even in the European Union.” – Heinz Koller.
Solutions
Development a system of continuing education
“We are now talking about continuing education throughout our entire life; only in this way will we be able to adapt to the new world.” – Svetlana Lukash.
“We are constantly trying to convey the regulatory system accurately in relation to requirements for education, training and employers. In the future, the Ministry of Labour must approve professional standards.” – Maxim Topilin.
"Long-term training is becoming more important than ever, especially considering how quickly old knowledge becomes obsolete. According to the International Economic Forum, by 2020, 20% of jobs will have changed.” – Erol Kiresepi, President, International Organisation of Employers (IOE)
Changing approaches to labour market regulation
“The regulatory environment needs to be modernized, updated in anticipation of the possibility of different types of employment, different contracts.” – Annemarie Muntz.
“The model of legislation that is tied to the 20th century, […] we must gradually move away from this.” – Renate Hornung-Draus, Managing Director, Confederation of German Employers’ Associations (BDA).
“Another important point is the introduction of digital technologies to the employee–employer relationship. We have almost completed preparations for the first set of legislation on the so-called electronic labour book. Next we’ll be preparing draft laws on electronic personnel production in general.” – Maxim Topilin.
Social dialogue on labour market development
“Answers to these complex processes can only be found through social dialogue. And it is here that the G20 plays a key role, providing just such an opportunity and mechanism.” – Svetlana Lukash.
“It is important for business that social dialogue not be an end in itself, but that it be result-oriented and contribute to the growth of company competitiveness and the social stability.” – David Iakobachvili, President, Orion Heritage.
Supporting small business
“It is inclusiveness in relation to small enterprises – because 60–90% of new jobs will be created by small enterprises. This is also the promotion of entrepreneurship as a whole.” – Daniel Funes de Rioja, B20 Chair under the Argentinian G20 Presidency.
More detailed information is available on the website of the Roscongress Foundation information and analytical system.
