Are Inflationary Trends in the Global Economy a Sign of Growth, a Result of Deglobalization, or an Indication of an Upcoming Crisis?
In order to mitigate the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have adopted a range of stimulus measures. In most cases, these essentially consisted of directly increasing the money supply, which has the potential to spur growth in inflation. Traditionally, a small rise in inflation has been associated with normal economic growth, and most economists link moderate increases in inflation to reductions in unemployment and rising national debt. This leaves governments facing a balancing act, and the results of their decisions are not easy to measure over the short term. If consumer confidence increases along with savings, the global economy may grow. In this instance, inflation is seen as a sign of a healthy economy. However, over the last several decades, in select economies major surges in inflation across the globe have been linked to a sharp reduction in investor confidence. Before the pandemic, a strongly globalized economy prevailed. However, the situation is now changing, particularly in Russia, with trade wars and sanctions all having an impact. As the world recovers in the wake of the pandemic, will a strong monetary policy help to maintain a balance and shore up stability, or will it hinder economic growth? What might be appropriate inflation growth targets over the medium term? How might rising inflation and salaries lead to increased automation, and to workers being replaced by robots, and will these factors contribute to a growth in unemployment? How might geopolitical factors have an impact on inflation within countries, and how should governments respond? In the current environment, does rising national debt carry with it additional risks? What might trigger hyperinflation in developed nations, and do such risks exist at a global level?
